A way in which China must persevere argues the organization

Search the Chinese consumer. Bringing water to the mill of the Westerners, who now urge Beijing to fully play its role of global economic growth engine, the Organization of cooperation and development (OECD) advocates the rebalancing of the Chinese economy by supporting domestic demand. In his second report on China, published yesterday, the Organization recommends that China continues to operate the fiscal lever, is restricting of its dependence on exports, leaving the yuan to appreciate to correct imbalances in the Chinese economy.

Among these imbalances, a very high savings rate, both on the part of the State than households. Thus, between 2002 and 2007, the share of consumption of households in GDP rose from 43.7 to 35.6, according to his report. At the same time, the household savings rate rose 10 points to 37.9. Will when the Chinese consumer is awaken

It is a matter to which the Chinese Government has already begun to attack, particularly because of the consequences of the financial crisis on global demand. "China has launched several reforms that begin to bear fruit, by supporting the internal application to the global recession, by helping to reduce internal and external macroeconomic imbalances and restructuring China's economy," sums up the OECD. A way in which China must persevere, argues the organization.

Ambitious social reforms

"Once the fiscal stimulus is down, the Chinese Government should not return to conservative budget policy" such as that between 2000 and 2007, and warned economist Richard Herd at the presentation of the report in Beijing. China should not tighten the cords of the stock market, as it has the means. While in Europe and the United States, the debt does not flexibility and force the States to a necessary budgetary rigour, the China "can afford the expense because public finances are strong", defending the authors of the report. Taking into account a forecast of strong growth in-10,2 in 2010 - the OECD provides as well that the public deficit will not exceed 3 of GDP in 2011. Pleading "ambitious reforms", the Organization advocates including to increase spending on social security, retirement or education. But rebalancing the economy by domestic demand also passes through the "reduction" heavy dependence on exports observed in recent years, noted the authors of the study. In this perspective, "the real exchange rate shall be assessed, as is the case for the catching-up economies" such as China. Since then, two alternatives: a nominal appreciation or even an appreciation by inflation. The OECD argues for the first option as it feared the second.

"Inflationary risks arrive in worrying way," and said the Chief Economist of the OECD, Pier Carlo Padoan, stressing that it will take "monitor closely". In fact, the prices of real estate, growing strong in the large cities of the country, give rise to the growing concern of analysts as to the existence of a bubble. Yesterday, independent Economist Andy Xie, China specialist, alerted to the potential bursting of this bubble, created by the relaxation since the crisis of credit in the country.

Find the lesechos.fr/documentslesechos.fr/documents study