Since midSeptember the stock markets mark way

Since mid-September, the stock markets mark way. The magnificent route which allowed them to bounce from 50 to go to the lowest in early March has given way since a fortnight to a period of hesitation. Managers and analysts questioned the sustainability of a movement that seems to mature with actions that appear now overvalued relative to bonds. In Paris, the CAC 40 index is thus failed, despite several attempts to outflank the 3,850 points, while in New York, the Dow Jones has encountered on the points 9.910. Levels which, in the opinion of the proponents of graphical analysis, constitute major resistance, including only a net crossing thresholds would ensure a continuation of the increase.

Obviously, investors are now need a time-out after a rebound on a scale which they had lost the habit. Before any new initiative, they want to assess whether the recent rise in prices is based on real prospects for improvement in long-term fundamentals of the global economy or whether it stems from the abundant liquidity available temporarily to the markets by policy makers. Inflection observed this month in the evolution of the confidence index, calculated by State Street in association with Harvard University, does not explain otherwise. After eight consecutive months of increase that led him to his flow of 82.1 points to a record five years to 122.8 points in August, this index, which measures the institutional investor appetite to risk returned to 118.1 points. He remains comfortably installed in the zone of accumulation of risk positions, but it reflects the doubts have emerged in recent weeks among investors.

To new heights

Today, the question is whether if markets have sufficient potential to extend beyond current levels and grow to new heights. Or if they are vulnerable to a consolidation, or even to a correction. David Kalfon, CEO of EFG Asset Management France, does not believe in the second hypothesis. "We remain convinced, ensures, that any withdrawal should be of limited magnitude and the CAC 40 index should quickly mark annual highest new."But operators could become more careful in their choice. "A first phase of indistinct rising equity markets, dictated by General cyclical factors and efforts to reduce costs and industrial production, will succeed a new phase, more selective that one", said Marc Olivier, Director-General of Nordea Investment Funds in France.

Surprise operators

That indices really go forward, will be mainly the next statistics are at expectations which have ceased to be identified. "Otherwise, the optimism will place disappointment", prevent managers of JP Morgan Asset Management. The next test should take place from the week next with the start of the season of publication of the results of the companies for the third quarter, which the kick will be given Wednesday by Alcoa. Second-quarter figures often have higher expectations. But the fact that they are still in the third will not necessarily healthy, says Gérard Moulin, Manager actions in Delubac Asset Management. He recalled that the current priority of the leaders to positively surprise markets in debauching often more they should, even initiate a bullish dynamic largely artificial. Hence its conclusion in the form of last warning: "best will be short-term results, more painful will be the economic recovery and thus, the force of the next cycle on equity markets."