The Bush administration caused much damage

After the historic victory of Barack Obama on November 4, 2008, by 52 of the vote, the new democratic administration soon arrive at the end of a first year in power that she hopes haloed by the vote of the reform of health insurance. "Despite the impatience and frustration, the programme of the President continues to dominate the agenda policy and it is about to get one of the most significant social legislation since the New Deal," said Lawrence Jacobs, Professor of political science at the University of Minnesota.

Yet, from a political point of view, its base moving forward is eroded. The President has lost allies, including the independent, which had acceded to his election. "It was very quickly lost the centrist electorate." "In the third quarter, he broke a record decline of popularity", notes John Samples, Director, Center for Representative Government, Cato Institute. One of the reasons, said Michael Franc, Vice President for government relations of the very conservative Heritage Foundation, is that it has delegated the implementation of its programme to the Chairmen of the committees of the House and the Senate. "These are they who became the face of the Obama administration." "Very liberal, they have ambitions that do not match the expectations of the centrists," he said.

Since the summer, while the President had previously always sought to reach out to the opposition, it is resolved in a more partisan to achieve its purpose approach. The reform of the health, for example, has no Republican votes in favour, with the exception perhaps of one in the Senate. "There is no precedent in the legislative history United States where a major text of law raises as much acrimony and intense partisan positions", Michael Franc note. Yet, the Republican party is still in tatters. "The Bush administration caused much damage." "A combination of supporters of the war and evangelists could not win," ensures John Samples. But the Republicans have found the pugnacity on highly technical issues, such as health.

This huge site took considerable time to the assemblies and two of the three reforms that the administration hoped to get this year (the climate and the financial regulation) are likely to be delayed and perhaps, in the case of the climate, to fail.

Hailed crisis management

If the polarization has increased between the two camps, some experts see also tension to assert itself within the Democratic Party. "There is a risk of rupture between the moderate wing of the party and the more liberal on the issue of a public option for health insurance on the Afghanistan", said Lawrence Jacobs. International relations are again on the front of the stage. "By granting the Nobel Peace Prize, the Nobel Committee did not gift to the President, but he was able to handle the situation," notes Thomas Mann, a researcher at the Brookings Institution.

Economically, the management of the crisis, with the vote of the Recovery Act, plan of $ 787 billion fiscal stimulus has been praised, although some found that the President has too slight hand with Wall Street. "He has avoided the abyss of an economic depression and a collapse of the financial system." "The question is to know when growth would be sufficient to create jobs," observed Thomas Mann.

The next test will be the parliamentary elections in 2010. "If Barack Obama loses more than 20 seats in the House and 5 in the Senate, discussed take a right turn", said John Samples. A possibility because legislative sites planned for next year: immigration, pensions, and work.