depressed since the beginning of the crisis

Misleading budget for sales of new cars in Europe last month. Certainly, in total, dealers have delivered in January 12.9 more than in January 2009, the market being pulled by two-digit increases in several countries such as the France, Great Britain, the Spain or the Italy. Many groups still live on the acquis of the commands recorded by the end of last year, as Renault ( 59.5), PSA ( 16.8), Fiat ( 19.9) and the European leader Volkswagen ( 11.3). But the builders keep of any triumphalism, knowing that these results are more than precarious.

Firstly, the basis of comparison of January 2009, at the height of the crisis, was particularly sluggish. If the market is actually over a year, the volumes displayed last month (1.1 million passenger cars) are still significantly below pre-crisis levels, bordering on the bar of the 1.3 million in the months of January, 2006, 2007 and 2008. Many experts believe that global volumes, in Europe, will not ever regain the levels of the previous decade, household being drawn into the various arbitrations consumer.

Secondly, the increase posted in January is lower than that of November ( 26.9) and December ( 16.4) last. The time is therefore deceleration of registrations, after temporary overheating linked to rumours of judgment of the premium in the case in some countries. Groups such as Volkswagen, PSA and Renault are also not put gray from the very start of the 2010 vintage and expect a decrease in the European market from 9 to 10 throughout the year. These forecasts, already made in September, are still valid today.

More fundamentally, the activity may give rise this year to a large crossover: in this case a balance between individual clients sales, mounted at a remarkably high with premiums to case-sensitive, to the great fleets (rental of long and short term, companies...), depressed since the beginning of the crisis. "It is for us the most important subject for 2010." "We are still in the midst of the greatest distortion ever seen on the European market", believe the analysts of Credit Switzerland. Everything will therefore be a matter of proportions. According to the same source, personal purchases, which culminated the year 65 of total registrations last, or 15 points more than the ordinary, are expected to experience a strong blow to brake this year, demoting 24 in volume.

No sign of recovery

The effect of boon of case-sensitive premiums actually gave rise to many purchases in advance. Thus, in France, this device caused the sale of some 300,000 new cars last year, according to the professionals. And, in Germany, the activity has fallen sharply since the decision of this Government bonus.

With this fix expected, Credit Switzerland provides a rebound of 21 of annual purchases of fleets, thus repeating much of the ground lost last year. But the exercise is largely for the moment of the crystal ball. The leaders of several groups, asked about the French case, distinguished for the time being no sign of recovery in sales to the business segment.

At the time, mainstream groups which have largely benefited last year orders from individuals, on the first Renault and PSA, could demote more this year that the average of the European market, prevent some.