On paper therefore a neutral transaction

Intent does not mean transaction. Eleven months after the signing in large pump of an agreement to cede to the Chinese electrician CGNPC and local SWFs 49 of the mining company UraMin, Areva and its Chinese partner have still not concluded the operation. And the chances of success appear meagre, even if the parties continue to discuss. "We came to agreement on economic conditions, confirms Sébastien de Montessus, the head of division mines the French nuclear group. It is not excluded that it succeeds, but with the deadline of December 31, 2008, we are free to talk with other electricians.

The agreement, signed on October 7, 2008 in the Palace of the national people's Assembly, provided for the surrender of 49 of the Canadian mining company UraMin for half of the total price of EUR 1.9 billion paid a year earlier by Areva. On paper, therefore, a neutral transaction. But the Chinese were asking in return the right to remove up to 70 of the production of uranium of the company, leaving more than 30 to the French group. "If we give almost all of the production electrician, we must do so in good conditions", says Sébastien de Montessus. This is where the shoe pinches.

A logic to work with EDF

"We discussed in parallel with enough partners electricians do not have to rush us to an unbalanced agreement", adds the pattern of division. He does not want to give names, but some groups who are already working with Areva reported their desire to invest in mines to secure their supply of fuel. This is the case of Japanese Tepco and Kansai, the Indian calendar or Chinese NCAGS. Moreover, there would be a real logic to what Areva and EDF work hand in hand on the subject. Mining Russian ARMZ also said Thursday that he would meet with representatives of Areva early October in Namibia, where is located the largest deposit of UraMin, to discuss projects.

Fluctuations in prices

Despite the crisis, the group chaired by Anne Lauvergeon means always move from third place in the first on the world market by 2012. "Personally, I hope that this will take place before this date", says Sébastien de Montessus. In 2008, it had a market share of 14, with a production of 6.300 tons, against 18 for Rio Tinto and 15 for Cameco.

To achieve its ends, Areva develops several deposits. The Somaïr, in Niger, must bear its capacity of 1,700 to 3,000 tons in three years. The Kazakhstan, the subsidiary Katco must bear its capacity of 1,700 to 4,000 tonnes. In Namibia, Trekkopje site has begun to produce and will reach its full capacity of 3,000 tonnes in 2012.

However, fluctuations in the course of uranium do not favour investment. After a record of 138 dollars in July 2007, the book of uranium fell on 46 dollars on the spot market. According to the world leader in the market, Rio Tinto, prices could decline further these next two years with the U.S. stock market. Longer term, prices could start to rise, with development expected nuclear. According to a report last week of the World Association of nuclear energy, uranium demand should pass from 64,500 to 76.900 tons between 2008 and 2015.