These new may extend the stock market rally

A glimmer of hope emerges while stock markets have entered their second week of increase in a row. The European DJ Stoxx 600 weekly gain amounted to 2.3 after 5,6, and that of the S & P 500 is at 1.6, 10.7 the previous week.

Several major central banks have sent a strong message to the markets. The US Federal Reserve, in particular, has shown that elle committed its forces in the battle against deflation. It was decided to increase the size of its balance sheet more 1,000 billion to purchase financial assets, including of State bonds in the amount of $ 300 billion. Activism of the monetary authorities should be supplemented by implementing the Geithner plan in the United States. Markets await today that the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury unveils the device to rid banks of their toxic assets. In addition, China has reported yesterday that its support measures should make 1.9 of additional growth to the country and reaffirmed its goal of 8 gross domestic product (GDP) growth, pointing out that some industries "are signs of improvement."

The case of "bear market rally."

These new may extend the stock market rally. Indeed, according to Bloomberg, the configuration of the options market, to take positions on the future movements of the stock exchange, allows suggests that the increase in the shares is completed. But several experts consider a premature reversal of trend. "We are convinced that it is rather a"bear market rally"to the beginning of a new sustainable upward phase of actions", entrust the managers of FIO.

In other words, the market would be temporarily well oriented while remaining prisoner of a deeply negative trend. FIO team does not a continuation of the increase in the weeks to come the appreciation potential is estimated at 10 percent but it note that, at the time of the real times, the progress of the Dow Jones index rarely exceeds 1 the day after his low point. But it is much more granted. In the case of "bear market rally", the rebound is often spectacular. Beyond these technical considerations, the macroeconomic data maintain the doubt as a sustainable recovery. Recent harvests of statistics have confirmed that the current recession was the most severe since the second world war. ING economists warn against possible disappointments this week, including real figures and orders for durable goods in the United States. They provide also a new degradation of the IFO index, climate Affairs in Germany, at least in the component of the investigation into the current situation. Finally, the Japan will publish its exports for the month of February, which should confirm their retreat.

The evolution of the bond market will also depend on emissions of securities, ahead is certainly in the United States. Dresdner-Commerzbank, approximately 98 billion in loans to State American could be sold: 40 billion of maturities in 2 years, 34 billion securities in 5 years and 7 years $ 24 billion. Such an influx is normally very penalizing for the market. But the announcement of "quantitative easing" measures by the Federal Reserve could deter investors flee us obligations.