The solution has everything to please RFF

Jean-Louis Borloo has reserved its last press conference of Minister of ecology. The 10 November, under the panelling of the hôtel de Roquelaure, most journalists have come to see the ex Prime Minister talking about the Government reshuffle. He prefers to dwell on the progress of the binding TGV Tours-Bordeaux and its future continuation on the Southwest and the Spain. Posture paradoxical, since the Minister not was little interested in the project, according to several actors in the sector. But a few days of her departure, the output value of political testament: this new line high speed (LGV) 300 kilometres - which will complement the 300 kilometres between Paris and Tours and will in 2016 to reduce time between Paris and Bordeaux from three hours to two hours ten minutes - is the major project the most ambitious of the Grenelle of the environment. It is mainly an estimated site at nearly 8 billion euros, which will be made in public-private partnership (PPP) by a consortium led by da Vinci. A first for a rail line, which is supposed to set an example for the future LGV. The kind of positive symbol what wants Jean-Louis Borloo.

Everything is for the better in the best worlds In reality, the inordinate enthusiasm of the former Minister is not always shared. Normal, in a sense, since "the South Europe Atlantic (SEA) project must contribute to turn the entire rail system, as acknowledged in RFF framework (network Ferré de France, the owner of the rails). And in fact, the points of friction abound. Local communities, to fund the project in the amount of 1.7 billion, and long was pull the ears by the State.

At the SNCF, some leaders do not décolèrent: financing should lead to a doubly tolls paid to RFF to move trains between Tours and Bordeaux, siphoning the time margins of the railway company.

As important on the line to expect as of les clients, the wait s' The question was also asked as early as may last Hubert du Mesnil, President and CEO of RFF by Catherine Coutelle, MP PS of the Vienna, the Board of Finance of the Assembly. "The risk is that the price of the ticket will become exorbitant. "He will have to be careful", met, laconic, leader. In the models it has developed, RFF calculates according to our information, that the rates should leap from 10 to 15 between 2015 and 2016, date of entry into service. Increased a minimum, since it is based on the assumption that the SNCF will accept to take over the major part of toll increases.

These figures mark a brutal return to reality, after the time of the great flights of the round table. This is not a total surprise to those who follow the peregrinations of the project, referred to by the public authorities for almost twenty years. In 2005, well before that the site is reclaimed by Jean-Louis Borloo in the round table, the Government of the time taking a strong decision: the SEA line will be by concession. Of course, a large part of the French railway was built on this model in the 19th century. But it has since largely forgotten the recipe. The first LGV were funded for the most part by SNCF. "The debt at the time, since retrieved by RFF, is a burden still on the rail system," said an expert in the sector. Recently, there was recourse to subsidies to 80 for TGV Est. Hardly possible in the current budgetary context.

This is that the concession is revealed particularly interesting. In this model, the costs of construction are well better maintained and especially needed for the project subsidies tend to be reduced to a minimum (see box). The consideration is obvious: the tolls paid by the carrier - SNCF in this case - the dealer must compensate. With, in fine, part of the Bill presented to clients, since tolls account for 30 to 40 of the price of a TGV ticket.

The solution has everything to please RFF. For a long time, the Network Manager believes that a part of the gargantuan margins realized by the TGV - more than 20 good years - must be used to finance the renovation of the network. "A margin of 20, it is good for Gucci, not for a carrier," view a frame of the House. The institution has therefore no unwillingness to opt for this schema. As of 2005, he began to work. His idea It can simultaneously trimming the rate of margin of SNCF and help travellers. "Win an hour on Paris-Bordeaux, it is a real added value, it is therefore normal that the customer pay for", argues a very good knowledge of the sector.

Question how is. Not easy to determine, since the railway guard jealously secret tariff revenues. RFF is a means simple to circumvent the obstacle: he

perform discreet investigations in stations with travellers, to better understand the market. But the thing out and, to the anger of the SNCF, "spies" must rely on the mouths of the RATP Metro. Atmosphere. After negotiations, customer inquiries will be on the waterfront, which belong to the difference in railway stations, at RFF

During 2007, a first assessment falls for SEA. The SNCF, Mireille Faugère, then boss of the TGV, is appalled: tolls are gone! Before the hustle and bustle, the State then decided to give a "mission of coherence" to two economists (Emile Quinet and Marc Gaudry) and the banker of Merrill Lynch Luc Rémont case. Lost sentence. The report, been kept secret, is unable to reconcile points of view of two public companies. The process can start again. In September 2008, the three groups (led by Vinci, Eiffage and Bouygues) grant applicants recovering their initial offers.

After a long marathon, it is ultimately Vinci (with the Caisse des Dépôts and AXA Private Equity) which is held in March 2010. He scrupulously applies the model in germ since the beginning. The consortium "has set its rates of toll, Editor's note allowed maximum." He considered - wrongly or rightly - that the margin of the carrier should be reduced from more than 20 to 10 ... and that the money produced by the movement of trains is responsible; that the SNCF is a need for other uses, is not the problem! ", says Hubert du Mesnil in May last MEPs. In the end, tolls should almost double from the current situation from 11 euros per kilometre for more than 20 euros.

The invoice is struggling to pass to the SNCF, who believes that there is death the economic model of high speed. As RFF has everything planned to force her to ride on this new new flambante line. There is indeed a risk that the railway company prefers to continue to ride on the former line - even if always offer its travellers - a binding of three hours to avoid rate increases. Lost sentence: RFF would increase the tolls of the current line Tours-Bordeaux in proportions equivalent to SEA (between 80 and 155 to the size of the train by 2016)!

This situation explains that some leaders of the SNCF have never hidden their opposition to this financial package, found untenable and doomed to be refloated by the State. This has hardly moved private groups candidates for the concession. The risk that the railway company decided to roll less than trains, because the Bill is presented to him They believe little. "If it reduces its offer, a foreign competitor takes its place", answers are in the world of the MGB. "In any event, it will always find a solution", said a relative of the folder. "The State will require the SNCF to ride on this new line either, it intends to apply to RFF to lower the tolls of Paris-Tours for reducing the overall Bill." Really rational step economically, but effective.

Beyond that, the State has been to reassure private groups candidates for SEA. The bulk of their economic model is based on traffic forecasts - it provides a minimum gain of 20.8 in 2016. Of course, the forecasts are rarely reliable: a recent survey of two engineers of the General Council of the environment and sustainable development (CGEDD) shows the overstatements of earnings of traffic in the order of 15 on first French TGV lines. But no matter. "In the financial montage of SEA, is in fact the State that bears much the traffic risk", according to a player in the world of the MGB. Explanations: the private consortium invests in the grant of 750 million in own funds, and especially to debt of 3 billion. Gold, stimulus plan requires the State "guarantees 80 the ultimate debt to the tune of EUR 2.5 billion." Therefore for the bankers, regardless that traffic revenues do not cover the loan. "They have been many to a ticket on the 3 billion of debt that the guarantee", continues this source. As own funds, they will be covered in part for da Vinci by the margin will be the Group on the work of construction. "Da Vinci has a high level of security," said close to the record.

The first Pickaxe blows should be held next year. The rail operations (ARAF) regulatory authority thus approved yesterday the tolls of the line. The SNCF will need to adapt hard, as is SEA figure in the eyes of RFF for example for the future. The tolls of the most profitable lines - Paris-Lyon-term should align with those programmed for Tours-Bordeaux. That raised a few days ago by Thierry Mariani, ticket price increases will be no doubt, in the not-too-distant future, a little less "reasonable" that imagine the Secretary of State for transport.