That said Stock family seems to be a real success

Lula remains favorite in the elections despite the corruption scandals which have splashed the workers party. Why

It is paradoxical, because without going wrong, the economy is not flamboyant. Growth should not exceed 3 this year, which is lower than the average in the region, and particularly emerging countries such as the India, the South Africa or the Mexico, not to mention China. Socially, several reforms were lack of speed of execution and sufficient budgets. Not to mention the moral crisis in relations between the Executive and the legislature, linked to the behaviour of the leaders of the PT and some relatives of the President.

But the Brazil is one of the most unequal countries in the world, where the average level of education is very low. The complexity of the corruption scandals, Brazilian voters are so lost and view entire political class as corrupt. A scandal more does therefore not change their point of view but, on balance, they prefer a corrupt leading policies in their favour, such as the social program "Stock family" (2).

That said, "Stock family" seems to be a real success...

It is true that the impact of this program is very positive. He feeds the local trade creates jobs, limit rural exodus. In making the carrier of the action of Lula is very skilful, so this is the conversion of the "Zero hunger" programme (3) who walked not very well. "Family" is the first reason for the vote Lula, one could almost speak of "recognition of the belly."

Lula has major economic and social ambitions for his second term. Will there be more ways to get there

It will have to cope with various problems. The latest scandal adds to a series of cases in trial. Lula will therefore be subject to attempts to "impeachment". Be able to unite around him enough parliamentary and party to escape He is currently working to build a coalition. But it is likely that this coalition will fall apart after a few months, making the possible "impeachment" and crippling any attempts to reform. This all over the country that suffers from a serious paralysis of institutions, most of the reforms that require a change in Constitution. However, it will not be the very difficult economic situation which he had inherited in 2002. Inflation has strongly declined and the financial margins of manoeuvre are larger.

Why is Brazilian growth so low compared to other emerging markets

"Stock family" program has generated approximately one-quarter of the current growth, alongside the increase in the minimum wage and pensions reform leading to the rest. Raw materials and sectors of agribusiness, large companies such as Petrobras, the prosperity of the banks, also draw the economy upward. Which today hampers growth, it is the economic orthodoxy of the Government: real basic rate remained the highest in the world for more than three years of the mandate of Lula, compelling him to severely cut in investments. This is not the economic orthodoxy that I put in question, its determination. Four years ago, austerity was justified by the runaway inflation. This is true today. In addition, the Brazil has failed to take advantage of the opportunities for lower rates, late 2003 including: he wanted to clean up even more the situation, showing in this more austere, more "FMIste" as the IMF! In 2004 and 2005, these are the scandals which prevented.

Today, the Brazil must get out of this rigour and invest more in infrastructure. Left, to give the means to finally tackle the huge gabegies in the administration. But the task is not easy and the enormous needs: that poverty is declining for a third Brazil, all factors equal, should be twenty-five years of consecutive 5 growth. But this level was never achieved during Lula's first term....