Household consumption is twothirds of GDP

Still, nothing is certain. But if exit polls are confirmed, the Indonesians could have opted for continuity, in the legislative elections of last Thursday. In the countries where are organized the most complex elections in the world 6,000 islands whose inhabitants are called to the polls on the same day counting operations are necessarily long. No final result is expected before May 9. But it seems, for now, the Democratic Party of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is at the top. This result would be logical, in view of the impressive economic recovery which can boast Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. The Indonesia was the country most severely affected by the Asian crisis of 1997-1998. On a single year, its gross domestic product (GDP) experienced a contraction of 13. An institutional and social quasi-implosion ensued. "There is no doubt that things began to go much better since 2004", notes an observer on the spot. Or, very specifically, the date of the arrival to power of the current President. He attacked the rampant problem of corruption, "which clearly fell", note the same specialist. Year after year, the head of State is also managed to keep the public deficit below the 2 of GDP. Financial sanitation led to public debt, flirting with the 100 of GDP, fell to 37 of GDP in 2008.

The reversal of the situation is obvious: while it was the sick man of Asia in 1998, the Indonesia appears as one of the least compromised by the current crisis. This is true politically. The Malaysia, and more Thailand, give signs of fragility while they were relatively stable at the end of the last century. At the same time, the Indonesia, giant of 227 million inhabitants, seems to be opting for political and institutional continuity. It is also significant in the economic field. Admittedly, Indonesian growth will seriously slow down this year. But according the current estimates, it could still continue around 3 (compared to 6.1 last year). A figure more than encouraging when compared to the surrounding recessions (Thailand, Singapore) or even to the Malaysia.

Own internal market

This serenity economically is due, first, to the lower rate of opening of the Indonesian economy. The average of exports and imports, GDP, is 40, a figure less than the other countries of the zone. The surrounding collapse is therefore felt in any way. And, adds Delphine Cavalier, an economist at BNP Paribas, "export destinations are diverse, and not not exclusively focused on developed countries". In addition, unlike countries like Singapore, the Indonesia can count on its own domestic market to develop. Household consumption is two-thirds of GDP.

It remains that shock absorbers of crisis currently enjoyed by the country can also be seen as weaknesses in the long term. The lower opening of the country will prevent it to benefit in full economic recovery when it will be. And it reflects "a structural problem of lack of competitiveness", note Delphine Cavalier, who note that the relatively high rate of investment returns primarily to real estate projects, and rarely to productive and industrial investment. During this time, countries such as the Viet Nam perform an impressive rise in range...